India cancel 20% of export tariffs, its more than expected supply will be pushed into the international market, so the news official in India, the international sugar prices fell, however, when the market after the restore calm, everyone began to careful analysis and discussion on the expected pressure and realistic problem. After we had analyzed in Pakistan, India, Pakistan, sugar production cost is high global prices, therefore in the context of global prices remain low, if the government does not export subsidies, the relatively high domestic sales prices also have certain inhibitory effect on exports, in the case of a subsidy problem is unclear, India in the short term it is difficult to export excess sugar is.
On Wednesday, the federal reserve raised interest rates to lift the already fragile Brazilian real and the Indian rupee from further devaluation, which also boosted the sugar. The raw sugar index recovered from a one-sided decline in the market and regained its footing after a recent low of 12.86. In the early stage, we pointed out that the short-term pressure of the raw sugar index is 13.24. Under this pressure, the raw sugar index will continuously lower and find the bottom, and any negative and superposition can make it expand into space. From what we have tracked, the raw sugar index has increased over 90,000 hands for 10 consecutive trading days under the short-term pressure, with a total holding of 886 thousand hands, and the market divergence has intensified.
Domestic market after a period of relative stability, the supply of focus on the market, the influence of the post-holiday demand downturn, especially to the concern about a possible resurgence of smuggling, spot prices began to soften and reduce small, nanning spot middlemen offer 5880-6020, offer lower limit by 10 yuan/ton, liuzhou middlemen offer 5810-5880, on the floor by 10 to 20 yuan/ton, the spot price 5590-5610 in kunming, upper and lower also cut 10-20 yuan/ton, respectively. La last remaining in the quarter, we at the end of this year the domestic sugar prices trend judgment is bad dense, futures at home and abroad was low, find, but we are still relatively optimistic for the second quarter, la Nina whether formation, Brazil's new government, production, in the second half of the northern hemisphere in the second quarter, gradually into the traditional consumption season, etc., can be substantial bullish, so at this stage, if not at the bottom of the market, also should be not too far away from the bottom.
Zheng sugar 805 as we judged, the downward test of 5635-5655 support, the intraday movement is basically still mainly short control, but the downward direction of the decline is obviously a little bit of concern, basically is a little bit. At the same time, 5-9 in the month of change in the distribution of the main capital, 5-9 litres of water into the tangle. The market's judgment on the market will determine the price difference between five and nine, and the difference between five and nine is likely to be completed in three to five days. Tomorrow the customs will release the sugar import data, which may have a certain impact on the disk.
Operation Suggestions:
Now zheng 805 is still blank control plate, sugar futures secondary test support area, down from the disk tracking has not yet appeared obvious long bottom, plus 5-9 on moving in storehouse, afternoon continue to shock the possibility of larger, but must pay close attention to in the later stages of moving in storehouse month zheng 805 whether there will be sugar. In the technical position, we will continue to see the weak adjustment under 5720-5735. Far in 809 has a few low in contracts, more uncertainty factors in the case, if want to in the process of indication of possible fall bottom far month, personally think that buy call option than roughly determined on a long contract and risk.